The 2021 UK Budget and Price Forecasts: Where Looks Good?


The recent budget seems to have bolstered the prospects for the residential sector, at least according to most agents.

The news that the stamp duty holiday is being extended until the 30th of June and the government plans to introduce guarantees for 95% mortgages has certainly improved market sentiment.

Savills, one of the UK’s leading up-market agents, has upgraded its 2021 forecast from 0% to 4% and is now forecasting growth of 21.1% for the five years to the end of 2025. The firm also expects transactions to increase from 1.05m to 1.4m this year, reflecting strong ongoing demand from buyers.

The firm believes the market with the highest growth rate will be the northwest of the country (Liverpool – Greater Manchester) at over 25% for the five-year period. The lowest is expected to be London with less than 15% over the same period.

Savills operates in London and the southeast of the country, so one could argue that its projection merits consideration. It is hardly trying to talk up the prospect for the market it operates in.

The firm did, however, also advise that in the high-end housing sector, the strongest price growth would be within prime central London. Well, perhaps that projection does favour them…

We have always said that price forecasting is crystal ball gazing, as so many things can change over the short term, let alone the medium term. We stand by that position, even though we agree with Savills’ view of things.


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